Samsung Smartphone Shipments to Dip in 2026 Alongside Every Other Major Brand

Samsung may be one of the world’s largest phone makers, but it’s not immune to what is shaping up to be a difficult 2026 for the industry. New forecasts from Counterpoint Research suggest the global smartphone market will shrink next year, largely because of rising memory costs. While nearly every manufacturer could feel the impact, Samsung remains among the best positioned to absorb the shock.

A smartphone market slowdown looks likely in 2026, according to Counterpoint

Counterpoint now expects global smartphone shipments to decline by about 2.1% year on year in 2026. Samsung’s own shipments are projected to fall by roughly the same amount. This puts it slightly behind Apple, which is forecast to see a 2.2% drop.

On paper, those numbers are not encouraging. But they look far less severe when compared with what several Chinese brands are facing. Honor, for example, is now expected to see shipments fall by 3.4%, while Vivo and Oppo are each projected to decline by 1.2%. Xiaomi is also expected to ship fewer phones than previously estimated.

The biggest factor behind this downturn is memory pricing. DRAM costs have already pushed smartphone bills of materials higher across the board, with low-end phones seeing cost increases of up to 25%. Mid-range and high-end devices have not been spared, with increases of around 15% and 10%, respectively.

But Samsung may weather the 2026 smartphone slowdown better than rivals

Counterpoint warns that memory prices could climb another 40% through the first half of 2026. This, in turn, will end up putting even more pressure on phone makers.

For Samsung, scale matters. The company’s broad portfolio, strong presence in the premium segment, and tight vertical integration give it more room to maneuver than many of its rivals. While budget phones are being hit the hardest, Samsung can rely more heavily on its Galaxy S and foldable lineups. On which, higher margins make it easier to absorb rising costs.

This lines up closely with a recent rumor suggesting Samsung will raise prices for the Galaxy A series in India. And if this forecast is anything to go by, we may also see a price hike for the Galaxy S26 series in early 2026.