HBM Delays, US Trade Restrictions Severely Impact Samsung’s Q2 2025 Profit

Samsung is bracing for a sharp decline in second-quarter operating profit, industry estimates suggest. Delays in its advanced memory chip supply to AI powerhouse Nvidia have severely affected the company’s bottom line. Analysts forecast the Q2 2025 operating profit to drop to 6.3 trillion won (approx $4.6 billion), marking Samsung’s weakest performance in six quarters.

Samsung is facing a sharp decline in Q2 2025 profit

A few days ago, the Korean media reported that Samsung’s operating profit could fall below 6 trillion won in Q2 2025. While the fresh data from LSEG SmartEstimate paints a more promising picture, it’s still quite gloomy. The estimated profit of 6.3 trillion won is nearly 40% below what Samsung made in Q2 2024 (10.44 trillion won). In the first three months of 2025, the Korean firm made 6.7 trillion won.

The drop reflects Samsung’s struggle to gain momentum in the booming AI memory chip market. While competitors SK Hynix and Micron have capitalized on the surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used in AI data centers, the Korean behemoth has lagged behind, hampered by US restrictions on chip sales to China, one of its major markets.

Analysts say Samsung’s HBM3E 12-high chips have yet to receive Nvidia’s certification, limiting its entry into the most lucrative segment of the AI supply chain. Although the company began supplying these chips to AMD in June, shipments to Nvidia are unlikely to scale meaningfully in 2024. It has already failed Nvidia’s quality evaluations multiple times, and that’s not a great sign.

Smartphone sales remain a bright spot, driven in part by pre-tariff stockpiling in the US. However, broader trade uncertainties — including potential tariffs and US licensing restrictions — continue to cast a shadow over the firm’s semiconductor and electronics business globally. Samsung will publish its preliminary earnings guidance for Q2 2025 later this week, followed by a full report at the end of this month.