Apple May Dethrone Samsung Globally for the First Time in Years

Samsung has long led the world in smartphone shipments, but that lead may be at risk. Counterpoint Research says Apple could become the largest smartphone maker for the first time in more than a decade. If that happens, it would be a major setback for Samsung.

Counterpoint says Apple will snatch Samsung’s badge after 14 years

Apple’s iPhone 17 series has been a strong performer in major markets. Counterpoint Research (via Telecoms) expects Apple’s shipments to grow 10 percent this year, compared with Samsung’s projected 4.6 percent. That puts Apple on track for a 19.4 percent share of the global smartphone market, slightly ahead of Samsung.

Early sales back this up. In the US, iPhone 17 sales during the first four weeks were 12 percent higher than the iPhone 16 series, excluding the cheaper 16e. In China and Japan, sales rose 18 and 7 percent. Millions of older iPhone users upgraded, and some Android owners switched as well.

Meanwhile, Samsung’s biggest challenge is not Apple

Samsung’s smartphone shipments are still expected to grow about 5 percent next year, and its premium models remain strong in North America, Europe and East Asia. The real problem is the mid-range and budget segments, where Samsung is under heavy pressure from Chinese competitors.

This is why the Galaxy A series needs a stronger push. Counterpoint says Samsung’s move toward better specs and more aggressive pricing should help, but it likely won’t be enough for the company to reclaim the top spot anytime soon.

Apple may keep the lead for years

Counterpoint predicts Apple will stay ahead until at least 2029. Several factors work in Apple’s favor: a weaker dollar that helps sales in emerging markets, steady ecosystem upgrades and an expected expansion of the cheaper iPhone “e” line. Apple is also rumored to launch its first foldable and a redesigned iPhone in 2027.

Not everything looks bad for Samsung. It will still make significant money from supplying displays to Apple, and a rumored Apple foldable could bring even more revenue to Samsung Display. Still, Samsung will need bigger hardware upgrades, stronger budget and mid-range phones, better flagship camera sensors and larger batteries across its lineup if it wants to reclaim the top spot.